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AMP Research – December 2004 What the pre-election polls said? About a dozen polls since April 2004 this year indicated that American Muslims and Arabs are leaning towards John Kerry despite some reservations about his policies on the Middle East. On Oct. 21, the Arab American Institute (AAI) released the results of its fifth and final pre-election tracking poll of Arab American voters in the battleground states of Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. According to a Sept 22 Georgetown University poll, Muslims backed John Kerry over the incumbent Bush by a margin of 76 per cent to 7 per cent. New California Media and Amnesty International, in August 2004, conducted a joint poll of Americans of Arab, Iranian and Pakistani descent, who number 1.8 million and are concentrated in the ``swing vote'' states. The poll indicates that 73 percent of Arab-Americans and 78 percent of Muslim Americans oppose President Bush on Iraq. A July 15, 2004 Survey of Arab-Americans in key swing states, conducted by the Zogby International, found the Bush-Cheney ticket winning only 26.5 percent support, with Kerry-Edwards at 51, Nader-Camejo at 11 percent, and 13 percent undecided. Only 9 percent of Arab-Americans said Bush's policies concerning Israel and Palestine are good or excellent. A Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) survey, in June 2004, reported that 54 percent of eligible Muslim voters said they would vote for Kerry, while 26 percent favored Nader. A poll conducted by the Washington-based Arab American Institute, on April 28, 2004, found A majority of Arab Americans in four battleground states would vote for democratic candidate John Kerry if presidential elections were held on April 29. Final Arab American Poll: On Oct. 21, the Arab American Institute (AAI) released the results of its fifth and final pre-election tracking poll of Arab American voters in the battleground states of Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The results showed a rebound for Democratic candidate Senator John Kerry and a drop in support for Republican candidate President George W. Bush and Independent candidate Ralph Nader. In September poll, Senator Kerry’s lead over President Bush had dropped significantly from a high in July, but he has since regained his lost ground and now leads President Bush 54% to 28%. According to the poll’s analysis, this is in part due to the fact that the “gains that President Bush recorded after his successful convention have been erased.” President Bush did make gains with some categories of those surveyed, including Democrats, where he “went from 2% to 10%” and among Muslims, where his “vote increased from 2% to 11%.” On the other side, Kerry “recorded gains among most groups with the most significant increases coming among Arab American immigrants (from 48% to 63%), Arab American Muslims (65% to 72%), and Arab American Orthodox Christians (33% to 42%). Kerry also recorded a significant increase among Arab American Republicans (from 8% to 22%).” At the same time, support for Nader’s “has collapsed.” http://www.aaiusa.org/countdown/c102904.htm#final MAPS Poll: According to a Sept 22 Georgetown University poll, Muslims backed John Kerry over the incumbent Bush by a margin of 76 per cent to 7 per cent. The poll was conducted by Zogby International for Georgetown University's Muslims in the American Public Square (Project MAPS). When the question is expanded to include minor party candidates, Kerry's lead is cut to 68% versus Bush's 7%, with independent candidate Ralph Nader picking up 11%, similar to the 12% he garnered from Muslim voters in 2000. “So pronounced is the movement away from Bush that he fails to capture even those Muslim voters calling themselves politically conservative, where Kerry leads him by a two-to-one margin” the poll said. The new poll also showed a migration away from the Republican Party by Muslim voters. In 2001, 23% of Muslims identified themselves as Republicans while 40% called themselves Democrats and 28% independents. Now, only 12% called themselves Republicans while 50% of Muslims are Democrats and 31% are independents. The poll also examined the impact of Muslim organizations on American Muslim voters, and found Muslims give a great deal of consideration to these groups. The poll found 53% of American Muslim voters say they believe Muslims should vote as a bloc for a presidential candidate. Georgetown University Press Release - September 22, 2004 New California Media and Amnesty International: In August 2004, New California Media and Amnesty International conducted a joint poll of Americans of Arab, Iranian and Pakistani descent, who number 1.8 million and are concentrated in the ``swing vote'' states. The poll indicates that 73 percent of Arab-Americans and 78 percent of Muslim Americans oppose President Bush on Iraq. On possible voting patterns in November, it was found that 49% of Arab-Americans favor John Kerry, 16% will vote for George W. Bush and 14% favor Ralph Nader. Muslim Americans as a whole indicate a favor for Kerry at 49%, Nader at 10% and have Bush trailing at 9%. However 32% were still undecided. New California Media website http://news.ncmonline.com/news/view_article.html?article_id=96ff52c5b35170bafb3342c9640aa8dd Arab-Americans: A July 15, 2004 Survey of Arab-Americans in key swing states, conducted by the Zogby International, found the Bush-Cheney ticket winning only 26.5 percent support, with Kerry-Edwards at 51, Nader-Camejo at 11 percent, and 13 percent undecided. Only 9 percent of Arab-Americans said Bush's policies concerning Israel and Palestine are good or excellent. Arab American Institute website http://www.aaiusa.org/PDF/poll071504.pdf First CAIR Poll: In June 2004, a Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) survey reported that 54 percent of eligible Muslim voters said they would vote for Kerry, while 26 percent favored Nader. A sizable 14 percent of Muslim voters said they are still undecided. (Fifty-five percent of the respondents said they voted for President Bush in the 2000 election.) According to CAIR's survey, 34 percent of respondents said the Democratic Party best represents American Muslim interests, closely followed by the Green Party at 24 percent. CAIR news bulletin June 29, 2004 On April 28, 2004, a poll conducted by the Washington-based Arab American Institute found A majority of Arab Americans in four battleground states would vote for democratic candidate John Kerry if presidential elections were held Thursday, April 29. According to the poll, 49 percent of all Arab-American voters in Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania - all swing states in the November election - would vote for Kerry, while 30 percent would vote for incumbent Republican President George W. Bush. However, with Ralph Nader - an American of Lebanese descent - in the mix, Kerry's support would slip to 45 percent, and Bush's to 28 percent, while the independent contender would get 14 percent of the vote. The 3.5 Arab Americans have around 1.7 million votes, or around one percent of an electorate of about 110 million U.S. voters. But what adds value to their votes is that they have a high turnout rate, said Arab American Institute President James Zogby. "Anything that moves hundreds or thousands of votes can have a seismic impact on this election," he was quoted by Agence France-Presse (AFP) as saying. Though there are only about 510,000 likely Arab-American voters in the states, the race could be close enough that even relatively small numbers could make a difference, Zogby said. Arab American Institute website http://www.aaiusa.org/PDF/statespoll2_042804.pdf PAK-PAC, an organization of American Pakistanis, had conducted a number of surveys. On Oct. 1, 2004, PAK-PAC asked: which of the presidential candidate connected with you today? Who do you think performed better in the debates from your perspective? 87 voted for John Kerry and only 2 percent for George Bush while 12 percent were uncommitted. PAK-PAC website The opinion polls and surveys topped persistent media reports, about Muslim political activism, indicating that most Muslim and Arab voters are not going to vote for Bush despite reservations about Kerry’s stance on the Middle East. The reason for this change of heart since 2000 was a widespread civil rights concerns. Here is a sample of some of the media headlines in October/November 2004 only. - Backers of Bush in 2000, many Arab Americans now support Kerry – Mercury News – Nov. 1, 2004 - Elections key to UW Muslims – The Daily of the University of Washington, Seattle – Nov. 1, 2004 - In Tampa: Muslims switch sides - St. Petersburg Times – Nov. 1, 2004 |