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AMP Report - November 2, 2006

American Muslims gear up for the next week’s elections

By Abdus Sattar Ghazali

An intensive voter registration and get-out-the-vote drive is under way in the seven-million strong American Muslim community before the Nov 7 mid-term election.

Muslim American voters, angered by the Bush Administration’s policies which abused their civil rights at home and killed and injured Muslims abroad, are expected to turn out in unusually high numbers this year, throwing their support overwhelmingly behind Democratic candidates, according to recent polls.

The Muslim groups are targeting 12 states with a high concentration of Muslim population: California, Illinois, New York, Texas, New Jersey, Michigan, Florida, Virginia, Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota.

The Muslim American Society, which has set up voter registration booths in mosques across the country, has added 30,000 new voters to the rolls in recent weeks.

In Illinois, another state with a heavy concentration of Muslims, the Council of Islamic Organisations of Greater Chicago has been working to register more of the area's approximately 400,000 Muslims to vote.

In California which hosts 20 per cent of the American Muslim population, American Muslim Voice (AMV) and American Muslim Alliance (AMA) are also encouraging Muslims to register as voters and participate in the national political process. The AMA has issued an election advisory suggesting its preference for the candidates who supported the Muslims on the issue of civil rights which remains the top Muslim concern in elections since 2000.

Keith Ellison, who is poised to become the first Muslim in the U.S. House of Representatives, last month visited California. He told a gathering of Muslims in San Francisco that the fact that he is Muslim has become the main point of discussion for some and turned into a blessing. Ellison has been victim of a number of negative campaign attacks from his Republican opponent Alan Fine, who has labeled Ellison a terrorist sympathizer. Ellison said he had chosen not to respond with a negative campaign. He said a smear campaign would go against his belief of bringing together people of all races and religions.

Meanwhile, two recent polls suggested that a majority of American Muslims are poised to support the Democratic Party in the mid-term election in which several polls suggest that President Bush’s Republican Party is likely to lose control of the Congress.

According to the Council on American-Islamic Relations survey of Muslim voters, 42 percent consider themselves members of the Democratic Party while only 17 per cent are Republican. Another 28 percent do not belong to any party.

Strong majorities of Arab-American voters in four key states — Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida — intend to vote for the Democratic candidates for senator, according to another poll by the Arab American Institute (AAI). It may be pointed out that about 40 percent of the 3.5 million-strong American Arab community is Muslim and the rest is Christian. However, Arab Christians have also been complaining of discrimination in the post-9/11 era.

While it is unclear if Muslim American voters have the numbers to tip any tight elections, many political observers believe that they have achieved unprecedented levels of political organization and electoral enthusiasm.

At least two million Muslims are registered voters. A 2001 poll by Zogby International found that 79 percent of the country's Muslims are registered to vote.

Iraq will be the decisive issue in the next week’s elections

Iraq remains top concern for the voters in the November 7 elections despite the Republican bid to divert attention on security issues that gave the GOP control of the congress in 2004 elections.

"A substantial majority of Americans expect Democrats to reduce or end American military involvement in Iraq if they seize control of Congress next Tuesday, and say that Republicans would maintain -- or increase -- troop levels to try to win the war," according to the latest New York Times/CNS News poll released today.

President George Bush has charged that `terrorists win and America loses’ if opposition Democrats win the next week’s elections. “If you listen carefully for a Democrat plan for success, they don't have one. Iraq is the central front in the war on terror, yet they don't have a plan for victory,” he told cheering Republican faithful at a rally in Washington on Monday.

"The poll found that just 29% of Americans approve of the way President Bush is managing the war in Iraq, matching the lowest mark of his presidency. Nearly 70% of Americans said Mr. Bush did not have a plan to end the war, and 80% said Mr. Bush’s latest offensive to rally public support for the conflict amounted to a change in language but not policy," the poll said.

New York Times said the poll underlined the extent to which the war in Iraq has framed the midterm elections. Among registered voters, 33 percent said they planned to support Republicans, and 52 percent said they would vote for Democrats.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll on October 23 said "the 2006 midterm elections look like a referendum on Iraq, a war in which President Bush and his party have lost not just the political center but significant chunks of their base."

"An improving economy notwithstanding, opposition to the war remains the prime issue driving congressional voter preference. And the war's critics include not just eight in 10 Democrats but 64 percent of independents, 40 percent of conservatives, 35 percent of evangelical white Protestants and a quarter of Republicans," the poll said.

According to Rasmussen Political Reports, "the number of people identifying themselves as Republicans has fallen to its lowest level since we began reporting this measure of partisan trends in January 2004. As a result, Democrats have their biggest net advantage of the past two campaign cycles."

"In October, just 31.5% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s a startling decline of nearly six percentage points from 37.2% two years ago. It’s also down nearly a full point from last month."

Rasmussen Political Reports pointed out that the Democrats have also lost a little ground since October 2004. Today, 37.7% identify themselves as Democrats, down a point from 38.7% on the eve of Election 2004.

Democrats have surged in opinion polls around the country this year, propelled by growing voter disillusionment with the Iraq war, President George W. Bush and the Republican-led Congress.

According to the latest Zogby Poll, Democrats are ahead in races for 12 of 15 key Republican-held House seats, "placing them within striking range of winning control of the chamber." Democrats lead in AZ-8, CO-7, CT-4, IL-6, IN-2, IN-9, IA-1, KY-4, NM-1, NC-11, OH-18, PA-6. Republicans lead in CT-2, MN-6, VA-2

John Zogby said: "Democrats are getting very close to that magic number of 15. Republicans are really on the ropes."

Another poll released on October 18 by the Gallup Poll found that Americans continue to be more likely to name Iraq as the nation's top problem than any other concern. This month's update shows a significant drop in the percentage of Americans who cite any economic issue as the most important problem, likely due to declining concern about gas prices, he poll said. “In addition to Iraq and economic concerns, other prominent public concerns include terrorism, dissatisfaction with the way government is run, immigration, healthcare, and decline in morality and ethics.”

Youth vote expected to be high

The midterm election has generated a lot of interest among young voters.

A new Harvard Institute of Politics poll (IOP) finds nearly a third of 18 to 24 year olds plan on voting in the next week’s elections that is likely amount to the highest turnout percentage for this age group in any midterm election in the last twenty years.

The poll says that f nearly a third (32%) of 18 to 24 year olds “definitely” plan on voting in the upcoming midterm elections, a proportion that will likely amount to the highest turnout percentage for this age group in any midterm election in the last twenty years. The poll also finds that young people continue to disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President, with the President averaging a grade of “C-”on seven key issues facing America, with the lowest mark coming on his handling of the War in Iraq (D+). Finally, 18-24 year olds seem to favor a swapping of majority parties in Congress, as a majority of likely voters (52%) said they favor a Congress controlled by Democrats following the November elections.

“Voter turnout by young people approached record numbers in 2004 and our polling shows 18-24 year olds are engaged and ready to show up again in 2006,” said Harvard’s Institute of Politics Director Jeanne Shaheen. “Younger voters could make the difference in campaigns across the country – political parties and candidates can’t afford to ignore them.”