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December 1, 2004 The tale of the American Muslim vote in Election 2004 By Abdus Sattar Ghazali Gaining political influence requires three main steps: fundraising, recruiting candidates and voting. The American Muslim community’s performance on fundraising for candidates and recruiting candidates to contest various offices was not appreciable in 2004 Election. However, the community was more active politically. This is the silver lining to 9/11, the Patriot Act and the mass detentions. It has pushed us to be proactive and take a stand, to be part of the political process. Now the Muslims are realizing that America's politics is about numbers: dollars you donate to your favorite candidates, or votes you can generate for them. Although their campaign fundraisers produced meager results but they were able to mobilize the community to get out and vote. Evidently, whether intended or not, Muslims voted en bloc on November 2, 2004 presidential election, a behavior that is undoubtedly the outcome of personal and collective experiences, not a political strategy per se. The only reason for en mass Muslim and Arab vote for Senator Kerry was the civil rights issue as they endured much of the brunt of the Bush administration’s transgression on the country’s rights, and particularity their civil liberties. At the same time, the Muslim community showed its eagerness to participate in the political process. This was confirmed by various studies and hundreds of media reports. A study, which surveyed Muslims in and around Detroit, Michigan -- an area that has the largest concentration of Muslims in the country -- demonstrated the growing perception that Muslim communities, which in the past have been viewed as isolated and inward-looking, are now seeking greater political involvement in the U.S. Over 60 percent of those polled cited civil rights issues as their top public policy concern, according to the study by Michigan-based the Institute of Social Policy and Understanding released in April 2004. The mainstream media played an important role in highlighting the concerns Arabs and Muslims, particularly abridgment of their civil rights, the during 2004 election campaign. The media helped in motivating them to participate in the political process by registering as voters. It reported extensively about the voter registration campaigns by various local Muslim and Arab community organizations as well as Islamic centers and mosques throughout the nation. A study of more than 100 media reports shows that the media stressed that civil rights was the defining issue for the Muslims and Arabs after the 9/11. For example, according to Seattle Post-Intelligencer (2/4/2004), Muslims in cities across the nation voiced concern over an anti-Muslim backlash after the 2001 terror attacks, and what they call the subsequent assault on civil liberties by the Bush administration. Of the more than 1,200 detainees caught up in the post-Sept. 11 dragnet, most were Muslims or people from Arab or southern Asian nations. An Agence France Presse report (2/6/2004) said: The three million Arab-Americans, who have felt ostracized since September 11, 2001, want to show they can be a mighty political force in this year's presidential election. Civil rights was the major issue in 2000 presidential election when the American Muslim community voted virtually en bloc for George Bush. Ironically, four years later, civil rights remained the most significant issue for the Muslims who this time voted overwhelmingly for Senator John Kerry. An exit poll, on Nov. 2, by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) indicated that 93 percent of Muslim voters were casting their ballots for John Kerry. In a democratic system vote is the best instrument to express one’s opinion. And Muslims joined millions of citizens to express their opinion about the Bush administration policies. Muslim vote for a Democratic candidate is not new. In 1996, they voted for Democratic President Bill Clinton. According to Zogby Polls, more than 50 percent of Muslims were voting for Democratic Party in nineties with only 16 percent committed to Republican Party. The first time Muslims tried to use bloc vote at the national level was in 2000. Traditionally, Arab-Americans and U.S. Muslims vote in large numbers. An estimated 79 percent are registered, and 85 percent of those say they vote, according to a 2001 poll taken on behalf of Georgetown University in Washington, D.C. As the American Muslim community grows, it is becoming increasingly aware of its social and political potential. American Muslims have distinct views on issues such as abortion, prayer in public schools, welfare reform, immigration, and civil rights. They seek to promote family values, prevent crime, combat drug abuse, and encourage other worthwhile social goals but it will not be an exaggeration to say that abridgement of civil rights was the single issue that galvanized the Muslim and Arab community. A barrage of post 9/11 discriminatory policies impacted them. This is not to say that the Muslims and Arabs were not concerned with other election issues. But obviously all communities are motivated by the issues that affect them most. A Democratic Presidential hopeful, Dennis Kucinich best reflected their sentiments when he said during a visit to a Florida Mosque: “The defining issue for Muslims is the restriction of civil liberties.'' However, in this election, the American Muslim organizations apparently did not play any significant role in motivating the voters who from the very beginning of the election campaign were seen to concentrate mainly on the civil rights issue because they were affected by the biased policies of the Bush administration in the aftermath of 9/11. Foreign policy issues remained the driving force of American Muslim politics. Except in the area of foreign policy, Muslims look at presidential candidates in the same way that non-Muslim Americans do. According to the Zogby International/Arab American Institute study, the administration’s Middle East policy is a major reason for Bush’s loss of support among Arab-Americans. In fact, two-thirds of them stated that the administration’s Middle East policy was very important in determining their vote. When asked to evaluate Bush’s handling of the Middle East, only 18% expressed approval – 78% expressed disapproval. And according to more than 50% of the Arab-Americans surveyed in the ZI/AAI poll, the administration’s civil rights and civil liberties policies are also among their top concerns. The stated reason for this is their widespread concern with the administration’s behavior. The civil rights issue even overshadowed the Middle East problem and the Muslims and Arabs supported Senator Kerry despite their reservations about his support toward Israel. In the past, Muslims and Arabs have voted along social and ethnic lines, according to James Zogby, president of the Washington-based Arab American Institute. Many business-owning Arabs, for example, are Republicans, but African-American Muslims vote for Democrats, he said. "There is incredible diversity within ... the ethnic and racial groups of Islam and the religious community doesn't yet operate as a political constituency," Zogby said. This time, however, Zogby and others predict racial and conservative beliefs may take a backseat. The erosion of civil liberties, the unresolved Iraqi War and Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be front and center, according to the New York Daily News, August 9, 2004. Besides becoming the most important election issue, the abridgment of the civil rights proved an important factor in motivating the American Muslims and Arabs for political activism. American Muslims have increased their participation in political and social activities since 9/11, according to a poll released on Sept. 10, 2003 by the Council of American-Islamic Relations. The poll said that roughly half of American Muslims surveyed say they have increased their social (58 percent), political (45 percent), inter-faith (52 percent) and public relations activities (59 percent) since the 9/11 terror attacks. During the last one year, the Muslim and Arab political activism was extensively reported by the mainstream media with such headlines (few examples): Arab vote poses a challenge for Bush - Civil liberties concerns, foreign policy have cut support from 2000. (The Dallas Morning News - October 18, 2003; ) Muslim-American Activism: Enhanced Muslim Interest in American Politics. (Washington Report on Middle East Affairs – October 2003); Arab-Americans organize to influence elections. (News Day - December 13, 2003); Muslim vote may be shifting: Bush enjoyed support from Islamic community - before Sept. 11, terrorist attacks and wars. (Dallas News – January 9, 2004); New Jersey Muslims stressing political participation. (News Day - January 5, 2004); Muslim vote may shift to Democrats. (Deseret Morning News - February 09, 2004); Arab-American group fights bias, rallies voters. (South Florida Sun-Sentinel - February 7, 2004): - U.S. Muslims seek greater electoral clout.(Seattle Post-Intelligencer - February 4, 2004. While media reported Muslim and Arab political activism, opinion polls gauged the presidential candidates’ preferences. Preliminary results of an exit poll, on Nov. 2, by Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) indicated that more than 90 percent of Muslim voters are casting their ballots for John Kerry in today's election. In that early survey of 537 Muslim voters, 93 percent of respondents said they voted for Kerry, 5 percent favored Ralph Nader and less than 1 percent said they supported President Bush. In the key battleground state of Florida, a CAIR sampling of 335 Muslims who cast their votes on Nov. 2 or in early polling shows that 95 percent voted for Kerry and just 3 percent voted for President Bush. Ralph Nader received under 2 percent of Muslim votes. In Ohio, a similar sampling of 222 Muslim voters showed 86 percent voting for Kerry, 4 percent for Bush and 10 percent for "other" or a third party. "We are seeing an unprecedented level of voter mobilization by the American Muslim community in this election," said CAIR Executive Director Nihad Awad. "I believe Muslim voters have come of age and will be a factor in all future elections." Muslims from almost every state responded to the exit poll, with the most responses coming from California, Virginia, Texas, Maryland, Illinois, New York, Florida, and Ohio. Surveys were faxed and e-mailed to Muslim individuals and organizations nationwide. The last poll of the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), released just 11 days before the election on Oct 22, finds that 80 percent of likely American Muslim voters said they plan to vote for Sen. John Kerry on November 2. The poll, conducted following the third presidential debate, also indicated that just two percent said they will vote to re-elect President Bush and 11 percent of Muslim voters favor Ralph Nader. Only four percent of the Muslim voters said they are still undecided. At least a dozen polls since April this year showed that American Muslims and Arabs are leaning towards John Kerry despite some reservations about his policies on the Middle East. Taking queue from the opinion polls many American Muslim and Arabs groups had formally endorsed the Kerry-Edward ticket in October 2004, just less than one month before the election. The Muslim and Arab organizations that have formally endorsed Senator Kerry included: The Muslim-American Political Action Committee, an affiliate of Muslim American Society Freedom Foundation; the Arab American Political Action Committee (AAPAC), a major Arab American group that has supported George Bush in 2000, endorsed John Kerry; Muslims for a Better North Carolina and Najee Ali, director of Project Islamic Hope in Los Angeles, which represents African-American Muslims. The American Muslim Taskforce on Civil Rights and Elections (AMT), a coalition of ten Muslim organizations announced its belated qualified endorsement for Senator Kerry on Oct. 21, 2004. However, endorsements of the Muslim organizations in October came too late to impact the decision of the Muslim voters who had made up their minds long before as was confirmed by various polls, studies and media reports. Apparently, it was the mood of the community that forced these organizations to endorse Senator Kerry. Michael Meehan, a Kerry campaign spokesman, has made this point very clear when he said endorsements were helpful, but "at this late point in the election cycle, we are trying to turn supporters into voters and recent polling shows we have support among American Muslims 10-to-1." President Bush still had some support within the Muslim community. Muhammad Ali Hasan, co-founder of a group called "Muslims for Bush," said that Muslims can support Bush for bringing liberation and democracy to the Islamic world. Non-endorsement of any presidential candidate by the Muslim Public Affairs Council (MPAC) was also interpreted by many as an implied endorsement for Bush because the Muslim community was going to vote for Kerry. American Muslim voters went to poll with a deep conviction that their vote is the best guarantee to safeguard their rights. During the last one year the Muslims and Arabs have shown great political maturity and enthusiasm to participate in the national political process. Their political activism was also reflected in dozens of voter registration campaigns during the last one year. The Muslim organizations had set a goal to register one million new voters. However, the Muslims must realize that voting is not the end of the road, but the beginning of a long struggle that requires commitment, skill and resolve. In the next election round they have to be more active in elections at all levels, particularly local elections and campaigns. Also make alliances with other communities for outreach. Otherwise, after the election, their success will be confined to self-congratulating press releases by their organizations, filled with false victories and espousing equally false hopes. In the final analysis, like the 2000 election, there is no reliable exit poll data about the Muslim vote in 2004. Only one exit poll was issued by CAIR on Nov. 2 which is touted as 93 percent Muslim vote for Kerry. Like 2000, the void is being filled by leaders claiming to have delivered a bloc vote which may not be convincing to many as the Muslim leaders claimed as much as 72 percent vote to Bush. But independent analysts gave a estimate - based on pre-and post-election surveys - that in 2000 Bush received about 50 percent of the Muslim vote, Gore about 25 percent, and Ralph Nader 10 percent. Muslim organizations bear the responsibility to make credible post-election surveys and studies about the Muslim vote and the Muslim candidates. The Arab American Institute (AAI) has issued its final post-elections poll results which showed that John Kerry received 63% of the Arab American vote, while President Bush won 28%. An AAI report indicates that forty-four Arab American candidates were on the ballot this year-from Ralph Nader’s controversial independent bid for President to Mohammad Khairallah’s successful bid to be reelected as city councilman in Prospect Park, NJ. Overall, 24 won and 20 lost. Five Arab American candidates in Michigan won, including two Democratic state representatives and one Republican sheriff. Mitch Daniels, a Republican from Indiana won his bid to become Governor of that state. Ralf Nader factor: When Ralph Nader announced his candidacy in February 2004 as an independent candidate, there was a general perception among many Muslims and Arabs that he may again prove a spoiler in 2004 as he was in the 2000 presidential election. Arab American Institute President Dr. James Zogby’s comments best reflected their views: “We must deal with reality. I have great respect for Ralph Nader. His service is legendary and his principled challenge is inspirational. But this election is not about Ralph Nader. The real choice in 2004 is between George Bush and John Kerry. For me, it’s clear.” Click here to Read more about Muslims in 2004 election: 1. What the pre-election opinion polls said? 2. Media’s role in highlighting the Muslim & Arab concerns 3. Muslim & Arab organizations endorse John Kerry 4. Selling Bush was a tough job for his Muslim & Arab supporters 5. Democrats woo Muslims and Arabs 6. American Muslim Task Force’s role in 2004 election |